No-one is using the age-old electoral mantra "free and fair".

It is hard to find anyone who expects Afghanistan’s third major poll since 2001 to be fully free or fully fair.

These are the first elections since 2001 run primarily by Afghans – albeit with international support.

There’s been an unprecedented level of political debate and lively campaigning in this first truly contested poll.

But one embittered election expert described it as a "squandered opportunity".

Badly cheated

Some foreign election observers have worried for months what kind of language they will use the day after Afghans cast ballots on 20 August for a president and members of provincial councils.

Set the bar too high and disgruntled candidates will seize upon this verdict as convincing evidence that their victory was stolen. Set it too low and Afghans who’ve invested energy and hope in a crucial process, however imperfect, will feel badly cheated.

"Good enough" is a phrase that slipped into conversation after the last parliamentary elections in 2005, amid disappointment over some of the candidates allowed to run and persistent allegations of vote rigging.

In a highly charged political atmosphere, pressure was exerted on irate losers to accept the results and move on. Too much was at stake.

Western officials involved in the process now admit there was "very significant fraud". In some ballot boxes, neat piles of evenly folded ballots were evidence of stuffing.

A lot is also at stake this time, for Afghans and an international community determined to achieve success.

The question may be "good enough" for whom?

For all the talk of promoting democracy in Afghanistan, the ball was dropped after the 2005 polls.

Little was done to start work on this extraordinarily challenging process, despite a recommendation from the head of the Electoral Complaints Commission, Grant Kippen, to start preparations "well in advance of an election, including by means of a thorough lessons-learned analysis".

"We started too late," conceded a senior UN official.

‘Complicated elections’

In recent months, there has been a concerted push to fix gaping weaknesses and prevent the kind of fraud that could plunge Afghanistan into a political crisis at a critical juncture.

Doubts persist about the preparedness and impartiality of the Independent Election Commission. But there is praise too for its efforts to try to meet a series of deadlines.

UN envoy Kai Eide called this exercise "the most complicated elections I have seen anywhere in the world".

Nothing can be taken for granted in a country still struggling to emerge from the heavy burdens of a quarter of a century of war.

How does a young election worker confront a powerful commander or tribal leader who arrives at a remote polling station with a stack of proxy votes from his village?

How do you hire and train thousands of women to carry out security searches in deeply conservative districts where women are rarely seen in public?

Afghan democracy may be a textbook all of its own. A myriad of influences and calculations weigh on voters in a political system driven by shifting networks of patronage and traditional loyalties.

But people who have survived a lifetime of hardship should not be underestimated. In earlier polls, despite Taliban threats and intimidation by armed commanders, Afghans still turned out in the furthest corners of the country boldly to exercise their right to vote.

The first presidential election after the fall of the Taliban was truly a high-water mark – an emotional, if not euphoric, moment in 2004 where more than 70% of Afghans turned out to give Hamid Karzai 55.4% of the vote.

Afghanistan’s day of reckoning

Political, business, church, and media leaders say they can’t trust Mr. Zelaya to keep the commitments that would limit his authority under the Arias plan because, they say, Zelaya repeatedly violated the Constitution in the days that led up to his June 28 ouster over a proposed public vote that they think was aimed at extending his stay in office.

They also say that Zelaya has proved himself untrustworthy by failing to submit a budget to Congress last year and by shifting left in the middle of his term and allying himself with Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, a fierce critic of the United States, traditionally Honduras’ most important political and economic ally.

These officials say they prefer that de facto President Roberto Micheletti — or perhaps another senior government official who’d replace him — lead the country through the regularly scheduled Nov. 29 presidential elections and let the newly elected president take over as scheduled Jan. 27.

Opposition to the Arias plan runs so deep that Honduras’s decision-makers favor holding tight even in the face of international sanctions and threats that other countries won’t recognize the presidential election result.

"The president put himself above the law," said Oswaldo Canales, who heads the 9,000-strong Evangelical Fraternity of Honduras, the country’s biggest Protestant organization. "No one is above the law. He cannot return."

Zelaya’s supporters scoff at the notion that he’s untrustworthy and say those blocking his return are protecting powerful political and business interests. They say there’s no evidence that Zelaya intended to benefit personally from the referendum.

Mr. Arias hasn’t given up on his efforts, although swine flu has sidelined him for the past several days.

The team representing Honduras in the Arias negotiations remains active. It met Thursday in Washington with Jose Miguel Insulza, the secretary general of the Organization of American States, to discuss rescheduling a trip to Honduras by foreign ministers and the OAS that the Micheletti government has delayed.

Powerful players in Honduras also would benefit from the Arias plan.

Honduras’ military leaders, for example, favor an amnesty that Arias has proposed for all actions through the day Zelaya was forced from the country at gunpoint.

While many people say the military correctly carried out the Supreme Court’s order to arrest Zelaya on charges of violating the Constitution, they also say it went too far by forcing him from Honduras. Deputy federal prosecutor Roy Urtecho said his office was investigating whether the military leaders committed a crime.

Senior officials in Zelaya’s Liberty Party who supported his ouster want to find a way to resolve the crisis before the election. Without a resolution, they fear divisions over what happened could send party candidate Elvir Santos to defeat.

The power struggle has disrupted commerce throughout Honduras and scared away tourists.

Most trade is flowing freely, however, after the country’s Central American neighbors declined to impose an embargo. The Obama administration also has declined to take punitive measures against Honduras’s economy.

Still, the opposition to a deal is intense, with news reporting slanted against Zelaya and virtually no public opinion leader voicing support.

"He’d breach the agreement, and nobody would stop him," said Adolfo Facusse, the president of the Honduran National Industrial Association.

That sentiment is based on the events leading to Zelaya’s ouster, which began in March when Zelaya announced he wanted to consult the public on whether to rewrite the Constitution to permit a president to succeed himself.

The move alarmed the country’s elite because it resembled acts by Mr. Chávez, Bolivia’s Evo Morales and Ecuador’s Rafael Correa to extend their stays in office.

In time, Honduras’ attorney general, Congress and Supreme Court ruled that the vote was illegal because the Constitution contains an unusual clause mandating that any president who tries to extend his term must step down.

Zelaya ignored the opposition, and fired the armed forces commander June 24 after the commander questioned the legality of Zelaya’s order to distribute the ballots despite the ruling that the referendum was illegal.

The next day, Zelaya led several thousand supporters to an air force base to seize the ballots, as troops stood by.

"If we didn’t have any doubts about what was happening, that ended there," said Maria Eugenia Landa Molina, a Liberal Party member of Congress who once backed Zelaya but who now says he must never be allowed back into office.

Since his ouster, Zelaya has traveled to the US, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Mexico, Ecuador, Brazil, and Chile to rally support to get the Micheletti government to bend. Each of those countries has voiced support for his return but stopped short of real action.

Zelaya said this week that the US has such influence over Honduras’s economy that Obama administration officials could put him back in power if they enacted tough economic measures. The administration has refused, however, to take anything more than symbolic measures and accused Zelaya of "provocative actions" that prompted his ouster.

Zelaya has tried to mobilize a popular uprising, but that movement seems to have little broad-based support, despite marches this week that attracted up to 10,000 people from throughout Honduras.

That makes the Arias plan the best hope for his return, though it’s hard to find anyone among his opponents willing to contemplate his return. They’re skeptical he’d follow the Arias dictate that he renounce efforts to change the Constitution.

"I saw Zelaya change when he got too close to Chávez," said Marcia Villeda, another Liberal Party member of Congress who once supported Zelaya. "He fell in love with power and lost his perspective."

"Every day that passes, the chances for Zelaya’s return dim," said Julio Raudales, a former senior government official. "Getting someone to replace Micheletti is much more likely than having Zelaya return under the Arias plan."

Mediation stalls in Honduras as leaders refuse Zelaya’s return

World leaders from U.S. President Barack Obama to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez have told the new rulers of the Central American country to restore Zelaya, a leftist who was toppled by the army on Sunday and sent into exile after a dispute over presidential term limits.

The Organization of American States gave Honduras an ultimatum early on Wednesday to allow Zelaya back into office by this weekend or face suspension.

But the interim government’s response indicated there was little immediate hope of a negotiated solution to the crisis in Honduras, an impoverished coffee and textile producer.

Enrique Ortez, interim foreign minister, said Zelaya would be arrested if he came home and that the interim authorities were sure Zelaya had been removed in a legal process.

"We are not negotiating national sovereignty or the presidency," he told Reuters in an interview. "There is no chance at all" of Zelaya coming back to power.

The crisis in Honduras has spiraled into the worst political turmoil in Central America since the U.S. invasion of Panama in 1989, posing a test both for regional diplomacy and for Obama’s ability to improve the United States’ battered standing in Latin America.

The Honduran Congress has voted in a new government more favorable to the traditional business and ranching elite to replace Zelaya, who was toppled for trying to extend presidential term limits in power.

The president also upset the army, judiciary and members of his own Liberal Party for taking Honduras to the left.

In further signs of isolation of Honduras, the Inter-American Development Bank said it was pausing all new loans to the country until democracy is restored, while Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos said Europe will not talk to the new rulers if they attempt to get in touch.

"(The interim government) is going to try, but it’s better they don’t try, because they will not get an answer from us," he told Spanish state radio.

Mindful of its history of intervention in Latin America and, at times, of backing coups, Washington is trying to play a limited, behind-the-scenes role to show support for democracy and Zelaya’s restoration without being accused of meddling.

STRESS TEST FOR U.S. DIPLOMACY

The Honduran coup has quickly become a "stress test" for the U.S. government’s commitment to defending democracy in Latin America.

Washington, which has put off until next week a decision on whether to cut aid to Honduras, is letting the OAS take a leading role.

"We will wait until the (OAS) secretary-general has finished his diplomatic initiative and reports back … on July 6 before we take any further action in relationship to assistance," a senior Obama administration official said.

The U.S. military postponed activities with Honduran forces while the Obama administration reviewed the situation, the Pentagon said.

The United States has a task force of about 600 troops in Honduras, a U.S. ally in the 1980s when Washington helped Central American governments fight Marxist rebels.

The Honduran Congress approved a decree to crack down on opposition during a nightly curfew imposed after the coup. The decree allows security forces to hold suspects for more than 24 hours without charge and formalizes the prohibition of the right to free association at night.

Pro-Zelaya protesters clashed with security forces near the presidential palace on Monday and demonstrators applauding the coup that installed interim President Roberto Micheletti took to the streets on Tuesday. Protesters in favor of Zelaya marched again on Wednesday.

"Micheletti is a puppet of the powerful and we don’t want him as president," said a masked student who identified himself as Ramon.

Zelaya, who took office in 2006 and had been due to leave power in January 2010, had become a divisive figure in Honduras, a coffee, textile and banana exporter of 7 million people, especially after he allied himself with a firebrand socialist Chavez.

Zelaya gave up a plan to return home on Thursday, accompanied by a group of foreign leaders, to serve out his term. He said he now did not expect to return before the weekend.

The crisis erupted as the country struggles with a sharp decline in remittances from Hondurans living in the United States and in vital textile exports. Thousands of jobs have already been lost due to the slowdown in exports.

But coffee producers say exports have not been affected even after protesters blocked major highways in the interior.

Honduras rulers reject world pressure to reverse coup

Under the deal, former junta leader General Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz is suspending his campaign in presidential polls that had been set for 6 June.

The vote is now due to take place in July, and the opposition is expected to contest it.

The deal also envisages the formation of a unity government.

It was reached after lengthy talks involving international mediators in Senegalese capital, Dakar.

Gen Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz in August 2008 from Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi – the first democratically elected president of the western African nation.

Gen Abdelaziz launched the coup after he was sacked by the president.

The ousted president was held under house arrest until December 2008.

There has been intense international pressure on the ruling junta to return the country to democracy.

Mauritania has a long history of coups, with the military involved in nearly every government since its independence from France in 1960.

Deal to end crisis in Mauritania

While the recount results confirmed the validity of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s assessment that the elections in Moldova met many international standards, Gallup found that only 22% of Moldovans report having confidence in the honesty of elections. This is the fourth lowest percentage of residents surveyed in several countries in the Former Soviet Union (FSU).

The protests in Moldova are the second set of violent demonstrations to occur in a country in the FSU in April. Earlier that month, Georgians’ rallied against the newly re-elected Mikhail Saakashvili because of his failure to deliver on many of the promises that brought him to power during the Rose Revolution in 2003 and his poor relationship with Russia. Recently, Gallup data revealed that 34% of Georgians report having confidence in the honesty of elections — more than the number of Moldovans who said the same.

One common thread between the Georgian and Moldovan political climates is the freedom of the press, or lack thereof. Previously, Gallup reported that 42% of Georgian residents report having confidence in the quality and integrity of the media. Likewise, when surveyed, a minority of Moldovans (36%) expressed confidence in the quality and integrity of the media.

Furthermore, the Moldovan and Georgian governments exert strict controls over the media. About three weeks ago, the Moldovan government arrested several journalists from Romania, a country that President Vladimir Voronin believes to be partially responsible for the recent instability. The Reporters Without Borders organization recently released a statement about Moldovan authorities that said "Reporters Without Borders is very disturbed that that the authorities have been arresting journalists and even using violence against them." In fact, the Moldovan government blocked certain Web sites and television channels to prevent reports on the protests. In comparison with other populations surveyed in the region, Moldovans’ confidence in their media trends toward the lower half of the spectrum.

In general, residents in FSU countries where Gallup surveyed do not express confidence in the honesty of elections and the quality and integrity of the media.

Survey Methodology

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults in Moldova, aged 15 and older, conducted April 2006, June 2007, and October 2008. For results based on total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±3.3 percentage points for 2008, ±3.2 percentage points for 2007, and ±3.4 percentage points for 2006.

Results for countries in the Former Soviet Union are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults in each country except Russia with 2,019; Ukraine 1,074; and Georgia with 1,080. Interviews occurred between the period of May 2008 and December 2008. For results based on total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error ranged between ±2.5 and ±3.7.

Moldova’s Recount Highlights Troubled Election Process

The last election sparked violent scenes as protesters claimed the Communist Party victory was fraudulent.

The Communists needed 61 votes in the 101-seat parliament to elect their candidate Zinaida Greceanii – but only mustered 60 amid an opposition boycott.

If a second vote on 28 May also fails, parliament will have to be dissolved.

Opposition parties have vowed to maintain their boycott, forcing dissolution and a new general election.

The result of the last parliamentary election, in April, gave the Communists 60 seats – one short of the three-fifths majority needed to elect a president.

Although international observers said the election was generally fair, many young people felt the result was stolen, and thronged the capital, Chisinau, on 7 April, attacking the parliament building.

President Vladimir Voronin and his government accused neighbouring Romania of stoking the violence, causing an angry row between the countries.

Mr Voronin has to step down after the maximum two terms in office. But he has been elected speaker of parliament – a move analysts say could enable him to retain his hold on power.

Europe’s poorest

April’s general election opened up deep divisions between Moldovans.

Many older people were content to keep the Russian-backed Communists in power, while the younger generation generally backed the centre-right opposition parties, who are keen to move closer to the EU and improve ties with Romania.

Mr Voronin’s successor will lead the poorest country in Europe, where the average wage is just under $250 (£168) a month, and will inherit an unresolved conflict over the breakaway region of Trans-Dniester.

Moldova in presidential deadlock

The protesters object to the policies of South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity.

Alan Gassiev, a member of the political council of the opposition People’s Party, told RFE/RL that Kokoity is implementing "antidemocratic politics."

The demonstrators held signs saying "Kokoity, Where Is Russia’s Money?" and "No to Blacklists, Yes to Fair Elections!"

Gassiev said the opposition will do everything to establish real democracy and justice in South Ossetia.

South Ossetia is a breakaway Georgian region that was the scene of the Russian-Georgian war in August.

Russia and Nicaragua are the only two countries in the world that recognize South Ossetia as an independent state.

South Ossetian Opposition Group Protests In Moscow

The local ILNA news agency reported on Saturday the prohibition of use of the site for several days.

The elections are on June 12.

The ministry of communications and information technology had announced the decision, according to one internet service provider employee, although this has not been confirmed by authorities.

Facebook, based in the US, said that they had received reports that their site had been barred and that they were investigating the issue.

"We are disappointed to learn of reports that users in Iran may not have access to Facebook," the company said in a statement.

The INLA – considered close to Iranian reformists – reported that internet users said that the site was blocked because supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi were using it to communicate his views.

Those supporting Mousavi have said that they will use email to disseminate news of the banning.

Mousavi is a former prime minster and one of three candidates running against incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The other candidates are Mahdi Karoubi, a former parliament speaker, and Mohsen Rezaie, a former head of the Revolutionary Guard.

Ahmadinejad is expected to have a tough challenge in being re-elected, with his economic record and the international tensions he has presided over causing doubts at home.

Iran ‘blocks’ access to Facebook

Pushpa Kamal Dahal — known as Prachanda — stepped down last week after failing in his bid to sack the head of the army, whom he accused of refusing to enact reforms following elections last year that brought the rebels to power.

The Maoists and the army had fought a decade-long civil war that claimed 13,000 lives before the two sides reached a peace agreement in 2006.

“The president has sent a letter to parliament asking parties to form a government on simple majority after they failed to meet the deadline to form a new government based on national political consensus,” Ram Hari Aryal, President Ram Baran Yadav’s secretary, told AFP.

“As per the interim constitution, the prime minister shall now be elected by a simple majority by lawmakers in parliament.”

It was not immediately clear how the majority could be formed as the Maoists, who won 40 percent of the seats in the elections, have refused to join negotiations.

The Nepali Congress and the Communist UML — the second and third-largest parties in parliament — are thought unlikely to be able to attract the allies needed to form a coalition government.

Nepal president appeals for majority govt

Transfer of power has in most cases in post-colonial Africa been a violent affair; in the form of military coups or civil war. Despite its history of racial tension and apartheid, South Africans have since 1994, and on many occasions demonstrated a high level of political maturity as evidenced by the several peaceful handovers of power.

All this is a net result of a long period of struggle, that helped to inculcate democratic values as a result of seeing what racial divisionism and undemocratic tendencies, do to a nation state and its people.

And this mature political culture has had a lot of dividends for the people of South Africa and other nations on the African continent.

Many hitherto marginalised people have since 1994 been empowered economically and this has been enabled by the environment of stability and relative peace that has been made possible by adherence to democratic principles and practices.

At the same time, South Africa has emerged as an economic powerhouse on the African continent and many South African firms are involved in major investments.

Stability at home has allowed these firms to expand locally and internationally. Hopefully, more of such transitions will be seen in the rest of Africa.

South Africa’s Democracy Instructive